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The US Dollar Index has rallied 7% since October 2024, driven by expectations of Trump's economic policies and a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. While a potential rate cut in December may support dollar strength, geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions could create volatility, with technical analysis suggesting a range-bound trading scenario for 2025. Historical patterns indicate potential dollar weakness late in the year, followed by renewed strength in January.
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The US dollar has surged over 7% since October 2024, fueled by expectations of President-elect Trump's policies and a cautious Federal Reserve stance on rate cuts. However, technical indicators suggest a potential near-term correction, with high positioning levels and seasonal trends indicating a year-end weakening. Geopolitical uncertainties and tariff impacts may further influence the dollar's trajectory into 2025.
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Stocks futures are stable as investors await the PCE price index report and personal income and consumer spending data, both due at 10 a.m. ET. The Fed is expected to continue gradually cutting interest rates, reflecting confidence in inflation and the labor market.SoftBank plans to invest $1.5 billion in OpenAI, allowing employees to sell shares, following a recent $6.6 billion financing round. Meanwhile, Constellation Brands faces potential challenges from proposed tariffs on Mexican goods, which could significantly increase costs.In entertainment, the Thanksgiving box office is projected to be the best in years, driven by the releases of "Moana 2," "Wicked," and "Gladiator II," potentially leading to record results for the holiday weekend.
President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs of 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on Canada and Mexico could raise U.S. core PCE prices by nearly 1%, according to Goldman Sachs. This increase may complicate Federal Reserve rate cut calculations, as inflation remains above the target of 2%. The implementation of these tariffs is uncertain, with potential conditions related to immigration and drug policy.
Gold prices fell 3.44% to $2,616.80 per ounce as optimism surrounding President-elect Trump's Treasury pick and a potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire diminished the metal's safe-haven appeal. The market anticipates a shift in U.S. monetary policy, with a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in December, while a stronger dollar further pressures gold. Analysts predict continued volatility in gold prices amid the transition to the Trump administration and its economic policies.
President-elect Donald Trump is set to nominate hedge fund executive Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, a role critical for advancing his economic agenda. Bessent, founder of Key Square Group, is known for his market expertise and advocacy for tariffs, deregulation, and energy independence. However, his previous ties to George Soros may pose challenges during the confirmation process.
President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering Kevin Warsh for the position of Treasury secretary, with plans for him to eventually become Federal Reserve chair after Jerome Powell's term ends in 2026. Warsh, a former Fed governor, is among the finalists for the role, alongside Marc Rowan and Scott Bessent. However, Trump is known for changing his decisions, and no final choice has been made yet.
US equity markets surged, with the Dow Jones gaining 461 points as investors shifted to cyclical stocks amid a resilient economy, while the ASX 200 hit a record high of 8446, driven by strong energy, banking, and resource sectors. Key economic indicators showed a decline in US housing starts and a drop in jobless claims, while inflation rates in the UK and Japan saw mixed results. Upcoming data releases include the US FOMC meeting minutes and Australia's monthly CPI indicator, which may influence future monetary policy decisions.
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In 2025, tensions may arise between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over interest rates, particularly if inflation rises due to Trump's expansionary fiscal policies. While Trump may push for lower rates, the Fed's traditional approach could lead to conflicts, especially as Powell's term ends in 2026. Economic impacts from Trump's policies may take time to manifest, potentially delaying any Fed response.
Bitcoin has surged 117% this year, significantly outpacing Ethereum's 37% growth, leading to speculation about a necessary correction. With rising US interest rates and a strong dollar, a pullback to the $75,000-$80,000 range seems plausible, especially amid uncertainties surrounding Fed rate cuts post-election.

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